TO EFFECTIVELY SURVIVE TRUMP, LET REALITY BE YOUR GUIDE

Be afraid! he tells you. Impeachment in the House will win ME four more years as president.

Acquittal by the Senate will guarantee ME re-election.

Starting World War III will make ME unbeatable.

Way too many of you are buying this nonsense. You are intelligent and rational, so why do you fall for it? You fall for it, because you are frightened to death that he can make good on those threats.

Seriously, you need to slap yourselves.

If you wish to remain sane from now until election day 2020, you should begin practicing some form of mental self-defense. Since we have just crossed into a new year and entered the fourth quarter of Trump’s war on decency, intelligence, and democracy, I urge you to prepare for his fast and furious assaults by developing your mental survival map.

In his heart, Donald Trump believes that the 2016 electoral map is exactly the way he left it on the night of the election, and he desperately needs you to believe it too. But as we have all learned, there is reality and then there is Trump-reality. And, in reality (of the non-Trump kind), lessons have been learned, minds have changed, new voters continue to register, and the political pendulum is doing what pendulums do.

So, if you are still seeing the “map according to Trump,” it is only because he spends  most of his non-golfing hours scaring you into believing that he is the greatest of all magicians, who pulled an elephant out of the hat in 2016 and will do it again in November.

When we focus on the facts, we can see that he was not a magician, just a lucky con man -- which is not to say that he is a man without skills. This idiot savant’s genius is selling hate, and each time we glimpse an arena full of MAGAs screaming for more, it is only natural to feel a chill going up your spine, and if you allow yourself to be blinded by that fear and to remain blinded by that fear, you will not see the reality of the next election.

So, my friends, how do you break the con man’s spell?

I suggest you do what I do, which is to create your very own mental survival map. It doesn’t have to resemble an actual map. It just has to serve as a daily reminder of where we are on the road to reclaiming the White House. If you don’t have the time for this project, you are welcome to use my map, which I designed along the lines of a self-guided museum tour.

If you have two minutes, I will be happy to show you around.


MY SELF-GUIDED TOUR OF WHY TRUMP LOSES IN NOVEMBER

Starting Point and Exhibit #1: The Confusion Intrusion

The starting point for this tour begins with a simple explanation for the outcome of the 2016 election. Russia launched missiles of confusion that landed squarely on vulnerable Blue states.

Trump won the election by squeaking out victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – three states that went for Gore over Bush, Kerry over Bush, Obama over McCain and Obama over Romney. Russian agents and far-right websites spread bazaar lies about Clinton. Remember how she was running a child sex ring out the basement of a Washington D.C. pizzeria?

The confusion barrage from Russia, WikiLeaks, and Comey fogged the election day air.

Clinton countered with an underwhelming campaign strategy.

Pollsters and pundits disarmed us with false clarity by assuring us that Hillary would survive the battering and win the White House.

Exhibit #2: The Scattering That Led to The Shattering

Voters told us what they thought before the election and after the election.

The system is corrupt. There’s no difference between the candidates. Why not just stay home on election day? It will show them how little I care.

The system is corrupt. There’s no difference between the candidates. Why not vote third party to make a statement and show them that, for some of us, principles matter?

The system is corrupt. Bernie got screwed. Why not write-in Bernie or the name of my dog? It will make me feel better.

Hillary will win anyway, so why not cast a vote for the con man, just to send her a message and have her enter the White House with a little less swagger?

No doubt all that self-expression felt gratifying, but there was one big problem – actually, one huge problem.

White, non-college men told us with perfect clarity: I voted for Donald Trump. That badass will fight for me! That badass will make your lives miserable.

Exhibit #3: Yes, This March Had Legs

On January 21, 2017, the day after Trump’s inauguration, nearly a half million people participated in the Women’s March on Washington and another 3 to 4.5 million took part in at least 100 cities and towns across the U.S. It was the largest single day march in U.S. history.

I watched it on tv. I listened as reporters waded into the crowds and conducted interviews, most of which started with: Why are you here? There was no single answer. They were there for their own personal reasons. One common scene: I am here because of my mother, says a woman, nodding toward the older women by her side, and I am here to show this to my daughter, pointing to the girl by her other side.

This march was a declaration of values, of clarity, and of resolve.

Commentators were quick to point out that, while this “feel good” demonstration was certainly impressive, it would have little meaning if it did not yield practical results.

Did it yield practical results? It would not be Exhibit #3 on my tour, if the answer was not a resounding YES.

 Exhibit #4: Kids With Clout

After their schoolmates were slaughtered, the newly minted activists from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, led by intelligent, eloquent organizers like Emma Gonzalez, David Hogg, and Cameron Kasky, made it clear to the world that:

Deranged individuals, with access to weapons of war, who turn schools into scenes of mass murder, are aided and abetted by the politicians who’ve been bought by the NRA.

And…

They were mad as hell and they weren’t going to take it anymore. The usual thoughts and prayers, coming from the mouths of Republican lawmakers were not acceptable.

Students across the country organized, marched, spoke from the gut, and (Oh yes!) registered new voters.

 Exhibit #5: The Blue Tsunami

Ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, Republican incumbents, in the age of Trump, began retiring – you know, to spend more time with their families.

Pollsters and pundits began predicting that Democrats would win control of the House of Representatives. Predictions of a Blue Wave began to spread. Trumpism would be dealt a decisive defeat. But as election day grew close, excitement cooled. There would likely be a Democratic win, but it would be more of a Blue Trickle. Trump would rush in an and drag Republican candidates, in close races, to victory.

He sent out his orders that every race, in every district, would be about turning back “invading caravans,” pouring over the Mexican border to bring crime and disease to all of America. Republican candidates dutifully carried the message of fear to their voters.

It turned out that more voters went to the polls concerned about the loss of their current health care that Republicans had vowed to “repeal and replace. Voters noticed that Republican energy and strategy was all about repeal with virtually no interest or action on replacement.

On election day, commentators confirmed the prediction of a Blue trickle. Democrats would take the House, but by a small margin. They were wrong.

For the rest of that week, and into the next, results of close races continued to come in, ending with an historic 40 seat Democratic victory.

A record 36 women won House seats. The Women’s March did have legs.

A record number of young voters turned out. March for Our Lives did rally young voters.

Congress continued a trend of becoming more racially diverse – on the Democratic side, not on the Republican side.

The Blue Tsunami was not an accident. It was a result of the gift of clarity, provided by Trump and his band sycophants.

And the pendulum continues to swing Blue.

Every blood thirsty rally, every assault on health care and the environment, every farmer and manufacturer hurt by Trump tariffs, every lie, every childish insult, every crime committed in broad daylight, every road leading to Putin, every child in a cage, and all conduct unbecoming a president of the United States continues to clarify the American mind.

Now, I encourage you to come out of hiding, ignore the smoke screen, and just follow the map.

November 3, 2020? We’ve got this.


Bruce Coltin
Surviving Trump Two Minutes at a Time

WELCOME TO REPUDIATION NATION! (FUELED BY TRUMP)

He believes he can repeat the perverse miracle of 2016. In fact, he is counting on it, because he has no other strategy. He has always been a one-trick pony.

He thinks he won the presidency because he was smarter than everyone else. In fact, he won it because he had an unpopular opponent, help from Russia, the spectacular blunder of James Comey, and the off-the-charts enthusiasm of angry white, blue collar men.

There were those in his inner circle who might tell him the truth – that the world has moved on and he has not. As far as we can tell, they have all been fired. Delivering the painful truth to Donald Trump is a well-understood political death wish.

No more McMaster. No more Mattis. No more Kelly. No more Tillerson. No more Gary Cohn, who failed to convince his boss that tariffs and trade wars are bad for farmers, bad for manufacturers, and bad for consumers.

Now there is no one left to say:

Mr. President, this might be considered unpresidential.

Mr. President, this appears to be bad strategy.

Mr. President, with all due respect, this is stupid.

And I think it is a very safe bet that there is nobody left inside the presidential bubble to say:

Mr. President, you are losing.

In mid-June, Trump’s internal pollsters gave him the news that he was losing to Joe Biden by double digits in his three most important states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where he beat Hillary Clinton by razor thin margins, giving him the Electoral College votes that were supposed to be hers.

And to make it worse, those poll results were leaked to the press. Trump then did what Trump does. He angrily threw sand from his sandbox. He denied that the poll results existed, then he called them fake polls, then he said he never trusted polls anyway. And then of course, he fired several of the pollsters.

He now has what he always wanted – the unfettered freedom to be himself, surrounded only by people who nod approval or remain silent.

So Trump gets to have his tweet storms and his rallies, delighting his base with his favorite hits: Obama was a failure, Hillary was a crook, immigrants are dangerous, Democrats are un-American, outspoken congresswomen of color are treasonous, and our economy is the best it has ever been.

We can see with our own eyes that his base eats it up and begs for more. We can absolutely rely on the fact that the Trump base will show up at the polls in 2020 and vote for him again, if he keeps them fed with white racist battle cries, while celebrating them as the real Americans.

Meanwhile, all of us are subjected to a daily barrage of assaults designed to wear us down, make us sick, and paralyze us with fear – to the absolute delight of the Donald Trump Fan Club.

And there is no one left to tell him that membership in his fan club is already maxed out, and that Repudiation Nation (that’s us!) grows larger and more energized with every racist tweet, every grotesque rally, every attack on environmental protection, every mass murder inspired by a thinly disguised hate message, and now every mention of the word: recession.

We should not be intimidated by his pornographic lounge act.

We should all take a deep breath and remind ourselves that Repudiation Nation showed its clout in the 2018 midterms, by flipping a whopping 41 seats in the House of Representatives. That big Blue Wave was led by high black voter turnout in the cities and high white (mainly women) voter turnout in the suburbs – both of which were lacking in 2016.

In 2020, that combination will win everywhere in the U.S., except for the deep red states, where Republicans greatly outnumber Democrats. But, in blue and purple states, when Democratic enthusiasm is high, that combination wins − even when Republican enthusiasm is just as high!

So, I am happy to tell you (yet again) that Donald Trump will not win re-election.

But there is really no reason for you to believe me.

Months before the 2016 election, a little-known political analyst, Rachel Bitecofer did what no major pollster or analyst had come close to doing. She predicted the 41-seat flip in the House, and she did it by predicting the exact districts that would be flipped. 

Her predictions were based on a model that she developed.

You may remember that as the 2018 midterms grew closer, analysts began replacing predictions of a Blue Wave to more of a blue trickle. Perhaps Democrats would win the House, but it would be by a small majority. Democratic optimism began evaporating. But Rachel did not budge from her wave prediction.

So, I think we should listen to what her model tells her about the 2020 election. Although the election is still over a year away, with the all-important primaries yet to take place, Rachel Bitecofer has already made her prediction – not about who will be the nominee, but about which party will win the election.

Let me say that again. She is predicting the outcome of the presidential election without knowing which Democratic challenger will be facing off against Donald Trump.

According to her model − the same model that predicted the 2018 midterm election with pinpoint accuracy − the Democratic candidate will win the election with at least 278 Electoral College votes. Trump will win at least 197, and there are 4 toss-up states.

But the critically important industrial states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are not in her toss-up category. They are part of the 278. Trump still thinks he can win them, but he can’t. 

The Donald Trump Fan Club will be loud and confident up until the very last critical votes are counted, but Repudiation Nation will put an end to Godzilla.

Don’t be fooled by the con man’s bluster, which will remain loud, relentless, and unnerving. 

Just breathe, live, and keep committing random acts of sanity.

You’ve already taken two minutes out of your day to read this post, so why not take another few minutes to let Rachel Bitecofer tell you in her own words why you should sleep better.

It worked for me.


Bruce Coltin
Surviving Trump Two Minutes at a Time

WATCHING THE TRUMP-REPUBLICAN SLOW-MOTION CAR CRASH

From the moment he got his hands on the car keys, he has been taking us on a terrifying ride. All around me, I see people who are frightened to death that the ride will go on for five and a half more years, careening out of control, mowing down the monuments and institutions built and maintained by good and great men and women he couldn’t be bothered to read about.

As we helplessly watch from the sidelines, we wonder how much wreckage will be discovered when the rescue team and the cleanup crew are finally sent in. It will be a while before we know the full extent of the damage.

There are those who believe that each day of reckless unpredictability, at the hands of a madman, confirms their belief that the world has spun irretrievably out of control. Intelligent bystanders are understandably distraught. I get it.

We are all suffering from Trump-induced: What will he do next? syndrome. Trump taunts us with his assurance that he will remain in the White House short of actually shooting someone on Fifth Avenue.

Being exempt from all rules and laws is central to his reality.

But reality is not like real estate. Trump does not own it, even if he thinks he does. It is reality that the electorate today is not what it was on election day 2016 and will steadily continue its demographic shift beyond election day 2020.

At eye level, this sea change is barely visible, so Trump can’t or won’t see it, and there is certainly no hint of it at Mar-a-Lago. The browning of America is happening every day, as we move closer to becoming a majority-minority country by 2045.

Had Black voters turned out in Obama numbers, Trump would not be president. Black voters were highly motivated to turn out at the polls and elect the first Black president, and they were highly motivated to turn out in record numbers to defeat the despicable Roy Moore in deep red Alabama. They will be equally motivated to show up, in record numbers, and cast votes against the man who is maniacally dedicated to erasing the Obama presidency.

For Trump’s presidency, Charlottesville is an indelible stain. The President of the United States stood before the cameras and essentially announced to white supremacists: Don’t worry guys. I’ve got your back. Donald Trump will not just be running against the Democratic candidate. He will be pressed to run away from David Duke, the KKK, and the tiki torch bigots, but he will not find the will to disavow the racist thugs who view him as their savior.

It is surprising to some that the electorate has gotten younger − surprising due to the reality that young people do not exercise their right to vote.

But this group, which used to remain silent on election day, dramatically broke their silence in the 2018 midterms, contributing to the Democrats’ landslide victory. Who knew that growing up with the fear of being shot to death in their school room would turn into political action, which I think of as the Parkland Affect − articulate, fed-up, young leaders on a mission, traveling the country and wielding the power of social media to register voters and hold NRA-fueled politicians accountable.

In the most recent survey, taken by the Pew Research Center, those born between 1981 and 1996 identified with or leaned toward Democrats by a 27-point margin, 59% to 32%. They could not be making it any clearer that the reality of gun violence, climate change, and destruction of the environment − which appear to be invisible to the Trump-Republican business club − are bad for their generation.

Many white college-educated women woke up to the 2016 election results with shock, horror, and remorse − especially the ones who voiced their dissatisfaction with Hillary by sitting out the election or by showing up and casting a protest vote, knowing that Hillary would win anyway.  

Today, as the Pew survey tells us, 56% of all women voters identify or lean Democratic, while only 37% identify or lean Republican. That 56% is up 4 percentage points since 2015. Republicans’ current all-out attack on Planned Parenthood and reproductive rights will turbo charge that trend and further guarantee the voter enthusiasm missing in 2016.

The same survey found that 48% of men identify with or lean Republican, while 44% identify or lean Democratic. That number hasn’t budged since 2014. The exclusive club, known as the Republican Party, continues to re-enforce its brand as old, white, and male, leaving it perfectly positioned for the presidential campaign of 1952.

But Trump does have an unshakably loyal base of supporters, and the most unshakable and most powerful segment of that base are white evangelical Christians. But here’s the problem: according to the Public Religion Institute, evangelical Christians have dropped from about 21% of the population in 2008 to 15% this year, with “younger and better-educated members becoming the most likely to leave the faith.”  

What is the obvious reality? Young people will vote Democratic unless the Party stops listening to them. If the Party truly gives them a seat at the table − a table they will eventually own − the small tent Republican Party will soon be able to downsize to a much smaller tent.

Meanwhile, the stonewalling of House subpoenas will run out of gas in the courts, Robert Mueller will testify publicly, and all the other investigations into every corner of the Trump criminal enterprise will continue to reveal the unvarnished truth to every open American mind.

And this, my friends, is how the joy ride ends in 2020. No, he will not go quietly. He will of course be the victim of conspiratorial forces led by angry Hillary lovers, operating within a rigged system. He will troll the next president. He may sue everyone. He may threaten a comeback. Fox News will keep alive his alternative reality.

And as the sun comes up, we will begin the process of sweeping the broken glass from the streets and sidewalks, scrubbing off the graffiti, and putting the stop signs back where they belong.

And we will breathe, just breathe.