Sunday, June 9, 2019

WATCHING THE TRUMP-REPUBLICAN SLOW-MOTION CAR CRASH


From the moment he got his hands on the car keys, he has been taking us on a terrifying ride. All around me, I see people who are frightened to death that the ride will go on for five and a half more years, careening out of control, mowing down the monuments and institutions built and maintained by good and great men and women he couldn’t be bothered to read about.

As we helplessly watch from the sidelines, we wonder how much wreckage will be discovered when the rescue team and the cleanup crew are finally sent in. It will be a while before we know the full extent of the damage.

There are those who believe that each day of reckless unpredictability, at the hands of a madman, confirms their belief that the world has spun irretrievably out of control. Intelligent bystanders are understandably distraught. I get it.

We are all suffering from Trump-induced: What will he do next? syndrome. Trump taunts us with his assurance that he will remain in the White House short of actually shooting someone on Fifth Avenue.

Being exempt from all rules and laws is central to his reality.
But reality is not like real estate. Trump does not own it, even if he thinks he does. It is reality that the electorate today is not what it was on election day 2016 and will steadily continue its demographic shift beyond election day 2020.

At eye level, this sea change is barely visible, so Trump can’t or won’t see it, and there is certainly no hint of it at Mar-a-Lago. The browning of America is happening every day, as we move closer to becoming a majority-minority country by 2045.

Had Black voters turned out in Obama numbers, Trump would not be president. Black voters were highly motivated to turn out at the polls and elect the first Black president, and they were highly motivated to turn out in record numbers to defeat the despicable Roy Moore in deep red Alabama. They will be equally motivated to show up, in record numbers, and cast votes against the man who is maniacally dedicated to erasing the Obama presidency.

For Trump’s presidency, Charlottesville is an indelible stain. The President of the United States stood before the cameras and essentially announced to white supremacists: Don’t worry guys. I’ve got your back. Donald Trump will not just be running against the Democratic candidate. He will be pressed to run away from David Duke, the KKK, and the tiki torch bigots, but he will not find the will to disavow the racist thugs who view him as their savior.

It is surprising to some that the electorate has gotten younger − surprising due to the reality that young people do not exercise their right to vote.

But this group, which used to remain silent on election day, dramatically broke their silence in the 2018 midterms, contributing to the Democrats’ landslide victory. Who knew that growing up with the fear of being shot to death in their school room would turn into political action, which I think of as the Parkland Affect − articulate, fed-up, young leaders on a mission, traveling the country and wielding the power of social media to register voters and hold NRA-fueled politicians accountable.

In the most recent survey, taken by the Pew Research Center, those born between 1981 and 1996 identified with or leaned toward Democrats by a 27-point margin, 59% to 32%. They could not be making it any clearer that the reality of gun violence, climate change, and destruction of the environment − which appear to be invisible to the Trump-Republican business club − are bad for their generation.

Many white college-educated women woke up to the 2016 election results with shock, horror, and remorse − especially the ones who voiced their dissatisfaction with Hillary by sitting out the election or by showing up and casting a protest vote, knowing that Hillary would win anyway.  

Today, as the Pew survey tells us, 56% of all women voters identify or lean Democratic, while only 37% identify or lean Republican. That 56% is up 4 percentage points since 2015. Republicans’ current all-out attack on Planned Parenthood and reproductive rights will turbo charge that trend and further guarantee the voter enthusiasm missing in 2016.

The same survey found that 48% of men identify with or lean Republican, while 44% identify or lean Democratic. That number hasn’t budged since 2014. The exclusive club, known as the Republican Party, continues to re-enforce its brand as old, white, and male, leaving it perfectly positioned for the presidential campaign of 1952.

But Trump does have an unshakably loyal base of supporters, and the most unshakable and most powerful segment of that base are white evangelical Christians. But here’s the problem: according to the Public Religion Institute, evangelical Christians have dropped from about 21% of the population in 2008 to 15% this year, with “younger and better-educated members becoming the most likely to leave the faith.”  

What is the obvious reality? Young people will vote Democratic unless the Party stops listening to them. If the Party truly gives them a seat at the table − a table they will eventually own − the small tent Republican Party will soon be able to downsize to a much smaller tent.

Meanwhile, the stonewalling of House subpoenas will run out of gas in the courts, Robert Mueller will testify publicly, and all the other investigations into every corner of the Trump criminal enterprise will continue to reveal the unvarnished truth to every open American mind.

And this, my friends, is how the joy ride ends in 2020. No, he will not go quietly. He will of course be the victim of conspiratorial forces led by angry Hillary lovers, operating within a rigged system. He will troll the next president. He may sue everyone. He may threaten a comeback. Fox News will keep alive his alternative reality.

And as the sun comes up, we will begin the process of sweeping the broken glass from the streets and sidewalks, scrubbing off the graffiti, and putting the stop signs back where they belong.

And we will breathe, just breathe.



1 comment:

  1. Bruce, a pleasure to read such a literate piece. I hope you aren't overly optimistic about the voter turnout in 2020. Millenials and blacks need to find a candidate they can feel passionate about. Let's hope we get one!

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