THERE IS MAD AND THERE IS FLIPPING MAD

Leading up to the 2016 presidential election, there was a suspicion that a significant number of voters were not leveling with the pollsters. Rumor had it that some pro-Trump voters were either lying and saying that they would be voting for Hillary, or they were lying and saying that they were undecided. The assumption was that they were either embarrassed about their true intention, or they were joining in a kind of prank to help produce an election surprise.

There is understandably a fear among Democrats that those pranksters are at it again. But this time around, could some Democrats be playing the same game? When we take a look at Joe Biden’s state by state numbers, we see that they have remained consistent, but we are worried that the poll numbers are not showing a breakaway lead in the states that will determine the election.

Democratic organizers understand that voter turnout will decide the election, and they may be working behind the scenes to prevent “soft” voters from becoming complacent. Have these organizers been sending out the word for respondents to be cagey with the pollsters or to not answer their questions?

So, for the moment, let’s assume that we can’t totally believe the poll numbers − at least the head-to-head numbers where registered voters or “likely” voters tell pollsters which candidate they plan on voting for.

Fortunately for us, the pollsters have a trick up their sleeves that they are careful to play with skillful subtlety. It is called the Right Direction/Wrong Track question, and it’s best presented with the utmost casualness, along the lines of: “Generally speaking, do you think that the country is headed in the right direction or is it off on the wrong track?” That kind of question gives us a useful glimpse into the respondent’s state of mind that might or might not align with their choice of candidate.

Right Direction/Wrong Track captures, in a general way, what are commonly referred to as “kitchen table” issues. During normal times, the issues, often discussed at America’s kitchen tables are centered around family finances, such as the affordability of college, a family vacation, a home renovation, and sometimes accepting the risks associated with starting a family business.

The kitchen table discussion is of course quite different if the issues are: how to come up with next month’s rent, or how to stretch the grocery budget, or how to pay for uncovered medical bills.

When it comes to reelecting presidents, voters tend not to rock the boat when all is well at the kitchen table. But, when a majority of Americans feel that all is not going well, changing the party in power suddenly becomes a serious kitchen table topic.

In 2016, 31% of voters believed that the country was headed in the right direction, while 62% believed it was on the wrong track. Interestingly, most of the 31% did not blame Barack Obama. They blamed government in general or “the system,” which helps explain the election of a candidate who promised to turn the system upside down and drain the swamp.

The last five presidential elections that flipped political parties were 1980, 1992, 2000, 2008, and 2016. The average Right Direction numbers from those five election years was 24% and the average Wrong Track numbers was 70%. The election of 2008 stands out with Right Direction numbers at a dismal 11%, as George W. Bush was leaving office at the start of the Great Recession, and the U.S economy was sliding toward the edge of a cliff. Home foreclosures and job layoffs dwarfed all other issues.

So where, you might ask, are the Right Direction/Wrong Track numbers, right now, in the midst of the Covid-19 Recession with the death count mounting each and every day and the very real possibility that a second Great Depression lies somewhere around the corner?

Of the seven major polls conducted between August 31 and September 15, the average Right Direction percentage was 27.1 and the average Wrong Track percentage was 66.1. You might not find these numbers comforting. How can it be that Trump’s right direction numbers are not down in the basement with Bush’s numbers? The country is certainly in worse shape now that it was then.

Good question! Let’s take a closer look.

First, George W. Bush was not a cult leader. By the end of his presidency, Democrats and Republicans were happy to see him go. Second, the nation was a lot less polarized than it is today. At least one-third of our friends, neighbors, co-workers, and family members prefer Donald Trump’s misdirection to any Democratic alternative. And that is a fact of life − a rather depressing fact of life.

No pre-election numbers, including Right Direction/Wrong Track, tell the whole story. What they don’t give us are the length and depth of the emotion behind the numbers. Donald Trump has dropped all pretense of leading the nation out of the downward spiral that he created. In defeating COVID, and reining in the chaotic economy, we are largely on our own. The kitchen table pain and suffering are widespread but largely invisible. The soup lines, bread lines, and welfare lines, displayed on the front pages of daily newspapers in the 1930s were gradually replaced by debit cards.

If I were able to design my own opinion poll, I would be asking the 66.1% who believe we are on the wrong track, two additional questions:

On a 10-point scale, with 10 being the highest, How scared are you?

And, on that same 10-point scale, how angry are you?

Only the election results will tell us for sure, but there are some signals. Last Friday, early voting began in Virginia. At voting places throughout the state, people showed up in unexpectedly high numbers. Some waited in line for as long four hours to cast their vote. At an early voting site in Arlington County, nearly as many people voted in the first hour as voted on the entire first day of early voting in 2016.

They came determined to vote. Many brought lawn chairs and food. Reports are that people were wearing masks and maintaining distancing of at least 6 feet. Since they clearly believe in science, we can safely assume they were not waiting to vote for Trump.

On the second day of voting in Fairfax County, Trump 2020 demonstrators showed up for no apparent reason other than to harass the people waiting to vote. I could not be happier. They created and will continue to create a brilliant contrast for all to see − on one hand, an army of peaceful, disciplined citizens determined to take back their government and on the other, a self-appointed militia, out for a bit of intimidating fun, performing for a man-god who wouldn’t be caught dead on a golf course with a single one of them.

Those raucous, self-amused performers can’t imagine the length and depth of the rage they fuel. They are faithful to the commander who ignored his generals because he was smarter than all of them. Mattis, McMaster, Kelly, what did they know? Mission, experience, expertise, discipline? Nothing compared to a genius who “always wins” by trusting his gut.

At the Democratic National Convention, a new general stepped forward and planted his flag for all of us. Joe Biden’s acceptance speech was close to perfect in both tone and substance. With the election now in progress, the speech should be shared with everyone we know, but especially with those who may decide that because of the long lines at the polls, their vote is not needed.

 Not everyone will bother to read or listen to the entire speech, so I have selected the lines that, for me, most cut to the chase. If these lines do not move the most cynical, most complacent, or laziest among us, we can consider those individuals hopeless, and move on to worthier citizens.

 

America is at an inflection point. A time of real peril, but of extraordinary possibilities.

We can choose the path of becoming angrier, less hopeful, and more divided.

A path of shadow and suspicion.

Or we can choose a different path, and together, take this chance to heal, to be reborn, to unite. A path of hope and light.

This is a life-changing election that will determine America's future for a very long time.

Character is on the ballot. Compassion is on the ballot. Decency, science, democracy.

They are all on the ballot.

Who we are as a nation. What we stand for. And, most importantly, who we want to be.

That's all on the ballot.

And the choice could not be clearer.

 

The choice could not be clearer. It is a choice between a man with a tyrant’s heart and a child’s brain or a man who understands that there is a soul of America and who is committed to its restoration.

It’s just that simple.

 

Bruce Coltin

Surviving Trump Two Minutes at a Time