Leading up to the 2016 presidential election, there was a suspicion that a significant number of voters were not leveling with the pollsters. Rumor had it that some pro-Trump voters were either lying and saying that they would be voting for Hillary, or they were lying and saying that they were undecided. The assumption was that they were either embarrassed about their true intention, or they were joining in a kind of prank to help produce an election surprise.
There
is understandably a fear among Democrats that those pranksters are at it again.
But this time around, could some Democrats be playing the same game? When we
take a look at Joe Biden’s state by state numbers, we see that they have
remained consistent, but we are worried that the poll numbers are not showing a
breakaway lead in the states that will determine the election.
Democratic
organizers understand that voter turnout will decide the election, and they may
be working behind the scenes to prevent “soft” voters from becoming complacent.
Have these organizers been sending out the word for respondents to be cagey
with the pollsters or to not answer their questions?
So,
for the moment, let’s assume that we can’t totally believe the poll numbers −
at least the head-to-head numbers where registered voters or “likely” voters
tell pollsters which candidate they plan on voting for.
Fortunately
for us, the pollsters have a trick up their sleeves that they are careful to
play with skillful subtlety. It is called the Right Direction/Wrong Track
question, and it’s best presented with the utmost casualness, along the lines
of: “Generally speaking, do you think that the country is headed in the right
direction or is it off on the wrong track?” That kind of question gives us a useful
glimpse into the respondent’s state of mind that might or might not align with their
choice of candidate.
Right
Direction/Wrong Track captures, in a general way, what are commonly referred to
as “kitchen table” issues. During normal times, the issues, often discussed at
America’s kitchen tables are centered around family finances, such as the
affordability of college, a family vacation, a home renovation, and sometimes accepting
the risks associated with starting a family business.
The
kitchen table discussion is of course quite different if the issues are: how to
come up with next month’s rent, or how to stretch the grocery budget, or how to
pay for uncovered medical bills.
When
it comes to reelecting presidents, voters tend not to rock the boat when all is
well at the kitchen table. But, when a majority of Americans feel that all is
not going well, changing the party in power suddenly becomes a serious kitchen table
topic.
In
2016, 31% of voters believed that the country was headed in the right
direction, while 62% believed it was on the wrong track. Interestingly, most of
the 31% did not blame Barack Obama. They blamed government in general or “the
system,” which helps explain the election of a candidate who promised to turn
the system upside down and drain the swamp.
The
last five presidential elections that flipped political parties were 1980, 1992,
2000, 2008, and 2016. The average Right Direction numbers from those five election
years was 24% and the average Wrong Track numbers was 70%. The election of 2008
stands out with Right Direction numbers at a dismal 11%, as George W. Bush was leaving
office at the start of the Great Recession, and the U.S economy was sliding
toward the edge of a cliff. Home foreclosures and job layoffs dwarfed all other
issues.
So
where, you might ask, are the Right Direction/Wrong Track numbers, right now, in
the midst of the Covid-19 Recession with the death count mounting each and
every day and the very real possibility that a second Great Depression lies somewhere
around the corner?
Of
the seven major polls conducted between August 31 and September 15, the average
Right Direction percentage was 27.1 and the average Wrong Track percentage was 66.1.
You might not find these numbers comforting. How can it be that Trump’s right
direction numbers are not down in the basement with Bush’s numbers? The country
is certainly in worse shape now that it was then.
Good
question! Let’s take a closer look.
First,
George W. Bush was not a cult leader. By the end of his presidency, Democrats
and Republicans were happy to see him go. Second, the nation was a lot less
polarized than it is today. At least one-third of our friends, neighbors,
co-workers, and family members prefer Donald Trump’s misdirection to any
Democratic alternative. And that is a fact of life −
a rather depressing fact of life.
No
pre-election numbers, including Right Direction/Wrong Track, tell the whole
story. What they don’t give us are the length and depth of the emotion behind
the numbers. Donald Trump has dropped all pretense of leading the nation out of
the downward spiral that he created. In defeating COVID, and reining in the chaotic
economy, we are largely on our own. The kitchen table pain and suffering are
widespread but largely invisible. The soup lines, bread lines, and welfare
lines, displayed on the front pages of daily newspapers in the 1930s were
gradually replaced by debit cards.
If
I were able to design my own opinion poll, I would be asking the 66.1% who
believe we are on the wrong track, two additional questions:
On
a 10-point scale, with 10 being the highest, How scared are you?
And,
on that same 10-point scale, how angry are you?
Only
the election results will tell us for sure, but there are some signals. Last
Friday, early voting began in Virginia. At voting places throughout the state,
people showed up in unexpectedly high numbers. Some waited in line for as long
four hours to cast their vote. At an early voting site in Arlington County,
nearly as many people voted in the first hour as voted on the entire first day
of early voting in 2016.
They
came determined to vote. Many brought lawn chairs and food. Reports are that
people were wearing masks and maintaining distancing of at least 6 feet. Since
they clearly believe in science, we can safely assume they were not waiting to
vote for Trump.
On
the second day of voting in Fairfax County, Trump 2020 demonstrators showed up
for no apparent reason other than to harass the people waiting to vote. I could
not be happier. They created and will continue to create a brilliant contrast
for all to see − on one hand, an army of peaceful,
disciplined citizens determined to take back their government and on the other,
a self-appointed militia, out for a bit of intimidating fun, performing for a
man-god who wouldn’t be caught dead on a golf course with a single one of them.
Those
raucous, self-amused performers can’t imagine the length and depth of the rage
they fuel. They are faithful to the commander who ignored his generals because
he was smarter than all of them. Mattis, McMaster, Kelly, what did they know? Mission,
experience, expertise, discipline? Nothing compared to a genius who “always wins”
by trusting his gut.
At
the Democratic National Convention, a new general stepped forward and planted
his flag for all of us. Joe Biden’s acceptance speech was close to perfect in
both tone and substance. With the election now in progress, the speech should
be shared with everyone we know, but especially with those who may decide that
because of the long lines at the polls, their vote is not needed.
Not everyone will bother to read or listen to the
entire speech, so I have selected the lines that, for me, most cut to the
chase. If these lines do not move the most cynical, most complacent, or laziest
among us, we can consider those individuals hopeless, and move on to worthier
citizens.
America
is at an inflection point. A time of real peril, but of extraordinary
possibilities.
We
can choose the path of becoming angrier, less hopeful, and more divided.
A
path of shadow and suspicion.
Or
we can choose a different path, and together, take this chance to heal, to be
reborn, to unite. A path of hope and light.
This
is a life-changing election that will determine America's future for a very
long time.
Character
is on the ballot. Compassion is on the ballot. Decency, science, democracy.
They
are all on the ballot.
Who
we are as a nation. What we stand for. And, most importantly, who we want to
be.
That's
all on the ballot.
And
the choice could not be clearer.
The
choice could not be clearer. It is a choice between a man with a tyrant’s heart
and a child’s brain or a man who understands that there is a soul of
America and who is committed to its restoration.
It’s
just that simple.
Bruce
Coltin
Surviving
Trump Two Minutes at a Time
