From the moment he got his hands on the car keys, he
has been taking us on a terrifying ride. All around me, I see people who are
frightened to death that the ride will go on for five and a half more years, careening
out of control, mowing down the monuments and institutions built and maintained
by good and great men and women he couldn’t be bothered to read about.
As we helplessly watch from the sidelines, we wonder
how much wreckage will be discovered when the rescue team and the cleanup crew are
finally sent in. It will be a while before we know the full extent of the
damage.
There are those who believe that each day of
reckless unpredictability, at the hands of a madman, confirms their belief that
the world has spun irretrievably out of control. Intelligent bystanders are
understandably distraught. I get it.
We are all suffering from Trump-induced: What
will he do next? syndrome. Trump taunts us with his assurance that he will
remain in the White House short of actually shooting someone on Fifth Avenue.
Being exempt from all rules and laws is central to his
reality.
But reality is not like real estate. Trump does not
own it, even if he thinks he does. It is reality that the electorate today is
not what it was on election day 2016 and will steadily continue its demographic
shift beyond election day 2020.
At eye level, this sea change is barely visible, so
Trump can’t or won’t see it, and there is certainly no hint of it at
Mar-a-Lago. The browning of America is happening every day, as we move closer
to becoming a majority-minority country by 2045.
Had Black voters turned out in Obama numbers, Trump
would not be president. Black voters were highly motivated to turn out at the
polls and elect the first Black president, and they were highly motivated to
turn out in record numbers to defeat the despicable Roy Moore in deep red
Alabama. They will be equally motivated to show up, in record numbers, and cast
votes against the man who is maniacally dedicated to erasing the Obama
presidency.
For Trump’s presidency, Charlottesville is an
indelible stain. The President of the United States stood before the cameras
and essentially announced to white supremacists: Don’t worry guys. I’ve got
your back. Donald Trump will not just be running against the Democratic
candidate. He will be pressed to run away from David Duke, the KKK, and the
tiki torch bigots, but he will not find the will to disavow the racist thugs
who view him as their savior.
It is surprising to some that the electorate has
gotten younger − surprising due to the reality that young people do not
exercise their right to vote.
But this group, which used to remain silent on
election day, dramatically broke their silence in the 2018 midterms,
contributing to the Democrats’ landslide victory. Who knew that growing up with
the fear of being shot to death in their school room would turn into political
action, which I think of as the Parkland Affect − articulate, fed-up, young leaders
on a mission, traveling the country and wielding the power of social media to
register voters and hold NRA-fueled politicians accountable.
In the most recent survey, taken by the Pew Research Center, those born between 1981 and 1996 identified with or leaned toward
Democrats by a 27-point margin, 59% to 32%. They could not be making it any
clearer that the reality of gun violence, climate change, and destruction of
the environment − which appear to be invisible to the Trump-Republican business
club − are bad for their generation.
Many white college-educated women woke up to the
2016 election results with shock, horror, and remorse − especially the ones who
voiced their dissatisfaction with Hillary by sitting out the election or by
showing up and casting a protest vote, knowing that Hillary would win
anyway.
Today, as the Pew survey tells us, 56% of all women
voters identify or lean Democratic, while only 37% identify or lean Republican.
That 56% is up 4 percentage points since 2015. Republicans’ current all-out
attack on Planned Parenthood and reproductive rights will turbo charge that
trend and further guarantee the voter enthusiasm missing in 2016.
The same survey found that 48% of men identify
with or lean Republican, while 44% identify or lean Democratic. That number
hasn’t budged since 2014. The exclusive club, known as the Republican Party,
continues to re-enforce its brand as old, white, and male, leaving it perfectly
positioned for the presidential campaign of 1952.
But Trump does have an unshakably loyal base of
supporters, and the most unshakable and most powerful segment of that base are
white evangelical Christians. But here’s the problem: according to the Public
Religion Institute, evangelical Christians have dropped from about 21% of
the population in 2008 to 15% this year, with “younger and better-educated
members becoming the most likely to leave the faith.”
What is the obvious reality? Young people will vote
Democratic unless the Party stops listening to them. If the Party truly gives
them a seat at the table − a table they will eventually own − the small tent Republican
Party will soon be able to downsize to a much smaller tent.
Meanwhile, the stonewalling of House subpoenas will
run out of gas in the courts, Robert Mueller will testify publicly, and all the
other investigations into every corner of the Trump criminal enterprise will continue
to reveal the unvarnished truth to every open American mind.
And this, my friends, is how the joy ride ends in
2020. No, he will not go quietly. He will of course be the victim of
conspiratorial forces led by angry Hillary lovers, operating within a rigged
system. He will troll the next president. He may sue everyone. He may threaten
a comeback. Fox News will keep alive his alternative reality.
And as the sun comes up, we will begin the process
of sweeping the broken glass from the streets and sidewalks, scrubbing off the
graffiti, and putting the stop signs back where they belong.
And we will breathe, just breathe.
