We suspected that the election of Trump would be damaging to the nation and would, at the end of four years, require an extensive clean-up, but no one could have predicted the absolute wreckage resulting from the election of a man dumber and more malicious than we could ever have imagined.
It is almost impossible to fully absorb the current reality of pandemic, recession, and social revolution, replacing the pre-Trump complacency where so many of us lived our lives.
The marches and demonstrations in our streets have been
surprisingly multi-racial, multi-generational, and even bipartisan. Polls tell
us that 87% of Democrats, 76% of independents, and 53% of Republicans say they
support the demonstrations, which have now taken place in more than 2,000
cities and towns across the U.S.
In a recent Monmouth University poll, 76% of
Americans, including 71% of white people, called racism and discrimination “a
big problem” in the United States. That’s an amazing 26-point jump since 2015!
It was not so long ago that Republicans announced,
after a lot of soul searching, that they needed to become a big tent party. I
guess it had something to do with their inability to attract the fast-growing base
of black and brown voters, as we move steadily and irreversibly toward becoming
a majority-minority nation.
The GOP had always been able to come up with the
occasional black senator and a sprinkling of black congressional reps. Heck,
they even got a black guy appointed to the highest court in the land. Of course,
that achievement came at the expense of a young, black woman.
The televised inquisition of Anita Hill, by a
tribunal of powerful white men, otherwise known as the Senate Judiciary
Committee, was for many of us an agonizing spectacle. The gang of bullies in
business suits decided that she would be dismissed, discredited, and
humiliated, so that they could get their Conservative black nominee confirmed.
We wondered which one of them would stand up and
say: Enough of this badgering. She is not on trial here!
None would answer that call. Not even the Liberal “Lion
of the Senate,” Ted Kennedy, self-silenced by sexual harassment issues of his own.
Not even the Democratic chair of that committee, Joe Biden, who blocked female
witnesses from testifying on her behalf.
Joe called Anita Hill to apologize, but he did it 28
years too late, when he decided to run for president. Reporters were eager to
learn how the apology was received. She reported that she was “unsatisfied” by the
belated apology. She did not forgive him, but if nominated, she would vote for
him. She added that she believes in the ability of people to change.
One party did change. The other party −
not so much.
Anita Hill lost her battle to keep Clarence Thomas, the
man she accused of sexually harassing her, off the Supreme Court, but her quiet
courage inspired women to run for political office, most notably Carol Moseley
Braun, the first black woman ever elected to the Senate, who said that she
“seethed” at the treatment of Anita Hill.
Christine Blasey Ford did not win her battle to keep
the man she accused of molesting her, Brett Kavanaugh, off the Supreme Court,
but she faced a more evolved Judiciary Committee − at least on the
Democratic side. Kavanaugh did not get a Clarence Thomas free pass, in large
part because the stars of this hearing were four women who skillfully grilled
Kavanaugh with sharply pointed questions − Diane Feinstein, Amy
Klobuchar, Mazie Hirono, and Kamala Harris.
Each of them exposed his unwillingness to answer
direct questions, but it was the unrelenting, prosecutorial questioning by
Kamala Harris, the only black woman in the Senate and the only black women, other
than Carol Moseley Braun, ever elected to the Senate, that made him squirm in
his seat and look like the proverbial deer in the headlights.
Kamala delivered the same brand of tough questioning
to Jeff Sessions and Bill Barr in their confirmation hearings, but some of us
think that in her bareknuckle treatment of Kavanaugh, she was delivering some
degree of poetic justice for Anita Hill.
Thanks to a Republican majority, a damaged Kavanaugh
was finally confirmed. Donald Trump, ever the optimist, believed that the
Kavanaugh confirmation would excite his base and put Republicans over the top
in the midterm elections. Instead, it drove more “seething” women to the polls,
resulting in a democratic landslide that returned the House to Nancy Pelosi.
We learned from the presidential election
of 2016, and again from the midterm elections of 2018 that accurately
predicting the outcome of an election means correctly interpreting the poll
numbers and correctly gauging voter enthusiasm.
Pundits blew it both times.
As Trump continues to fail one leadership test after
another, his poll numbers drop among every category of likely voters, except his
most loyal supporters, who would follow him off a cliff, congregate at Covid-rallies, and possibly drink bleach.
So much for the polls, but what about that
enthusiasm factor? Does the shrinking number of Trump supporters and the
growing number of anti-Trumpers assure that we will not have a repeat of 2016,
when the Trump campaign threaded the needle through three swing states to give him
the electoral college victory?
The honest answer is that he probably or almost
certainly can’t pull it off again, because he can’t recreate the improbable
set of conditions that enabled his miracle win. But who among us can rest easy in
these few months before the most critical election of our lifetimes, without
seeking out every available advantage?
The streets of America are teeming with energy, but just
how much of that energy will translate to votes? And is it possible that a
portion of those marchers and demonstrators believe that the anti-establishment
statement they are making, which is already yielding practical results on
police reform, makes their vote in November seem unimportant and unnecessary?
Between potential voter flakiness from some Democrats
and certain voter suppression coming from Republicans, we sure could use some
election insurance. Fortunately, we already have it.
Fact: Since the election of F.D.R. in 1932, black
voters have been the most reliable Democratic voter group, by far. No other voter
group even comes close. Since Lyndon Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act in
1965, no Republican presidential candidate has gotten more than 15% of the
black vote.
In 2016, 91% of black voters showed up for Hillary −
more than double any other voter group. 81% of black men voted for Hillary and only
14% voted for Trump.
Not bad, very impressive, except when you consider
that 98% of black women voted for Hillary. In urban, suburban, and rural America,
the grassroots, home-based, get-out-the vote organizations belong to black
women. They work the phones and drive others to the polls. They apply peer
pressure to those who, for whatever reason, may not feel like going to the
polls on election day.
Doug Jones’ victory over Roy Moore in deep red
Alabama was a monumental upset that happened only because black women made it
happen.
Joe Biden’s political resurrection in the South
Carolina Primary started with the passionate endorsement by Jim Clyburn, but it
succeeded only because black women took those marching orders and went to work.
But, here’s
the problem, and it’s a big one.
When black voters turn out at Obama level numbers,
Democrats win. When they don’t, Democrats and Republicans are on close to equal
footing.
In 2008, with Barack Obama on the ballot, 74% of
eligible black women voted. In 2012, with Obama’s reelection on the line, 75%
showed up. But, in 2016, despite strong campaigning for Hillary, by Barack
Obama and Michelle Obama, just 66% of black women went to the polls.
Even with Obama in the White House, Democrats lost
the House in the 2010 midterms and the Senate in the 2014 midterms. Black
voters only turned out for Obama in overwhelming numbers when Obama, himself,
was actually on the ballot − not when only Obama's policies were on the ballot.
The current multi-racial, multi-generational,
bi-partisan demand for racial justice has settled the question of whether Joe
Biden’s running mate must be a black woman.
The only question remaining is: Which one will it
will be?
Barring a surprise, she will be one of the “short-list
four” −
Kamala, Val, Stacey, or Susan Rice. But changes happen fast these days −
really fast − and I would not count out two Democratic superstars
−
mayors Keisha Lance Bottoms of Atlanta and Muriel Bowser of Washington D.C.
With federal leadership, under the Trump-McConnell regime,
missing in action, cities, more and more, have been left to solve nationwide problems
on their own, and have become the major battlegrounds of social change.
The issue of police reform is a hot potato issue. Both
mayors have displayed real leadership, as they deal with critics on their
right, who accuse them of overreach by going too far, and critics on their left,
who accuse them of “betraying the cause” by not going far enough. Both women have
shined under the hot lights of the national stage.
My prediction is that Joe Biden will pick the right
woman.
He will need a partner who will be to him what he
was to Barack Obama. No one is more qualified to choose that partner than he is,
and no one will reward him more than the black women who know how to guarantee
an election victory, and who will be unstoppable when one of their own is put
in position to make history.
On the day that she is sworn in as vice president, Joe
Biden just might call Anita Hill one last time to again offer his apology. If,
as President of the United States, he still feels the need to make that call,
it will affirm what we know about his character.
Anita Hill is a woman of few words. If those words
include: Joe, I accept your apology, the Joe we know will likely have a
tear in his eye. It’s okay to admit that you miss that in a president.
I know I do.
I know I do.
Bruce Coltin
Surviving Trump Two Minutes at a Time
