He believes
he can repeat the perverse miracle of 2016. In fact, he is counting on it, because
he has no other strategy. He has always been a one-trick pony.
He thinks he
won the presidency because he was smarter than everyone else. In fact, he won
it because he had an unpopular opponent, help from Russia, the spectacular
blunder of James Comey, and the off-the-charts enthusiasm of angry white, blue
collar men.
There were
those in his inner circle who might tell him the truth – that the world has
moved on and he has not. As far as we can tell, they have all been fired. Delivering
the painful truth to Donald Trump is a well-understood political death wish.
No more
McMaster. No more Mattis. No more Kelly. No more Tillerson. No more Gary Cohn,
who failed to convince his boss that tariffs and trade wars are bad for farmers,
bad for manufacturers, and bad for consumers.
Now there is
no one left to say:
Mr.
President, this might be considered unpresidential.
Mr.
President, this appears to be bad strategy.
Mr.
President, with all due respect, this is stupid.
And I think
it is a very safe bet that there is nobody left inside the presidential bubble to
say:
Mr.
President, you are losing.
In mid-June,
Trump’s internal pollsters gave him the news that he was losing to Joe Biden by
double digits in his three most important states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and
Wisconsin, where he beat Hillary Clinton by razor thin margins, giving him the
Electoral College votes that were supposed to be hers.
And to make
it worse, those poll results were leaked to the press. Trump then did what Trump
does. He angrily threw sand from his sandbox. He denied that the poll results
existed, then he called them fake polls, then he said he never trusted polls
anyway. And then of course, he fired several of the pollsters.
He now has
what he always wanted – the unfettered freedom to be himself, surrounded only
by people who nod approval or remain silent.
So Trump
gets to have his tweet storms and his rallies, delighting his base with his
favorite hits: Obama was a failure, Hillary was a crook, immigrants are
dangerous, Democrats are un-American, outspoken congresswomen of color are
treasonous, and our economy is the best it has ever been.
We can see
with our own eyes that his base eats it up and begs for more. We can absolutely
rely on the fact that the Trump base will show up at the polls in 2020 and vote
for him again, if he keeps them fed with white racist battle cries, while celebrating
them as the real Americans.
Meanwhile, all
of us are subjected to a daily barrage of assaults designed to wear us down,
make us sick, and paralyze us with fear – to the absolute delight of the Donald
Trump Fan Club.
And there is
no one left to tell him that membership in his fan club is already maxed out,
and that Repudiation Nation (that’s us!) grows larger and more energized with
every racist tweet, every grotesque rally, every attack on environmental
protection, every mass murder inspired by a thinly disguised hate message, and
now every mention of the word: recession.
We should
not be intimidated by his pornographic lounge act.
We should
all take a deep breath and remind ourselves that Repudiation Nation showed its
clout in the 2018 midterms, by flipping a whopping 41 seats in the House of
Representatives. That big Blue Wave was led by high black voter turnout in the
cities and high white (mainly women) voter turnout in the suburbs – both of
which were lacking in 2016.
In 2020, that
combination will win everywhere in the U.S., except for the deep red states,
where Republicans greatly outnumber Democrats. But, in blue and purple states, when
Democratic enthusiasm is high, that combination wins − even when Republican enthusiasm is just as high!
So, I am
happy to tell you (yet again) that Donald Trump will not win re-election.
But there is
really no reason for you to believe me.
Months
before the 2016 election, a little-known political analyst, Rachel Bitecofer did
what no major pollster or analyst had come close to doing. She predicted the 41-seat
flip in the House, and she did it by predicting the exact districts that would
be flipped.
Her predictions were based on a model that she developed.
You may
remember that as the 2018 midterms grew closer, analysts began replacing
predictions of a Blue Wave to more of a blue trickle. Perhaps Democrats would
win the House, but it would be by a small majority. Democratic optimism began
evaporating. But Rachel did not budge from her wave prediction.
So, I think
we should listen to what her model tells her about the 2020 election. Although
the election is still over a year away, with the all-important primaries yet to
take place, Rachel Bitecofer has already made her prediction – not about who
will be the nominee, but about which party will win the election.
Let me say
that again. She is predicting the outcome of the presidential election without
knowing which Democratic challenger will be facing off against Donald Trump.
According to
her model − the same model that predicted the 2018 midterm election with
pinpoint accuracy − the Democratic candidate will win
the election with at least 278 Electoral College votes. Trump will win at least
197, and there are 4 toss-up states.
But the
critically important industrial states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are
not in her toss-up category. They are part of the 278. Trump still thinks he
can win them, but he can’t.
The Donald Trump Fan Club will be loud and
confident up until the very last critical votes are counted, but Repudiation
Nation will put an end to Godzilla.
Don’t be
fooled by the con man’s bluster, which will remain loud, relentless, and unnerving.
Just breathe, live, and keep committing random acts of sanity.
You’ve
already taken two minutes out of your day to read this post, so why not take
another few minutes to let Rachel Bitecofer tell you in her own words why you should
sleep better.
It worked
for me.
Bruce Coltin
Surviving Trump Two Minutes at a Time
Bruce Coltin
Surviving Trump Two Minutes at a Time
